Do you think he is right? I disagree. But I think he cannot justify the retooling costs. But betting against Musk is risky.
Here is what Grok says about it.
Elon Musk’s recent statement on X about the Tesla Model YL (a six-seat variant) not coming to the U.S. until at least the end of 2026, if at all, is tied to his belief that autonomous driving will significantly reduce demand for larger vehicles like the Model YL in favor of robotaxis. Here’s an analysis of how autonomous driving might impact the demand for the Model YL, based on available information and reasoning:[](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1958069174892474729)
### Potential Impacts of Autonomous Driving on Model YL Demand
1. **Shift Toward Robotaxis**:
– Musk’s focus on autonomous driving suggests a future where robotaxis, like the Tesla Cybercab (a two-seater, fully autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel), could dominate urban transportation. Posts on X indicate Musk anticipates self-driving technology becoming cheaper and more abundant than car ownership, potentially transforming the market and reducing demand for personal vehicles like the Model YL, especially in the U.S.[](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-autonomous-driving-experts-respond-2025-6)[](https://cleantechnica.com/2025/01/21/teslas-autonomous-driving-strategy-stranded-by-technological-divergence/)
– The Cybercab is designed for short trips with one or two passengers, which Musk believes will cover most ridership needs, potentially making larger vehicles like the six-seat Model YL less necessary in the U.S.
– However, some X users argue that the U.S. market, the largest for three-row SUVs, still has significant demand for larger vehicles like the Model YL, even with robotaxis, as families and groups may prefer vehicles with more seating capacity.
2. **Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics**:
– Autonomous driving could reduce the appeal of owning large personal vehicles if robotaxis offer a cost-effective, convenient alternative. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, which is central to its robotaxi strategy, is improving but still requires active driver supervision and is not fully autonomous (SAE Level 2). This may delay widespread adoption, keeping demand for personal vehicles like the Model YL intact in the near term.[](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot)[](https://www.tesla.com/fsd)
– In China, where the Model YL is targeted, demand is reportedly high due to competition and consumer preference for larger EVs. Delaying the Model YL in the U.S. could shift some demand to competitors’ three-row SUVs, as noted by X users who see the Model YL as a strong contender in the U.S. market at a $55,000 price point.
– Research suggests that semi-autonomous systems like Tesla’s FSD can lead to driver complacency, potentially increasing safety concerns and affecting public trust in autonomous vehicles. This could slow the transition to robotaxis, maintaining demand for traditional vehicles like the Model YL, especially for families needing more seats.[](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9996345/)[](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1555343417695197)
3. **Economic and Regulatory Factors**:
– Tesla’s focus on robotaxis is partly driven by declining EV sales and the need to diversify revenue through autonomous technologies. If FSD licensing and robotaxi services generate significant revenue (projected at $53 billion by 2035), this could reduce Tesla’s incentive to prioritize the Model YL in the U.S.[](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/what-is-teslas-full-self-driving-why-its-china-rollout-matters-2024-04-29/)[](https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/tesla-data-advantage/)
– Regulatory hurdles, such as NHTSA approval for vehicles without human controls (like the Cybercab), could delay robotaxi deployment, preserving demand for personal vehicles like the Model YL in the interim.[](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-autonomous-driving-experts-respond-2025-6)[](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/nhtsa-opens-probe-into-24-mln-tesla-vehicles-over-full-self-driving-collisions-2024-10-18/)
– Safety concerns with FSD, including crashes in low-visibility conditions, may also temper enthusiasm for autonomous vehicles, keeping consumers reliant on traditional vehicles.[](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/nhtsa-opens-probe-into-24-mln-tesla-vehicles-over-full-self-driving-collisions-2024-10-18/)
4. **Data Advantage and Technological Progress**:
– Tesla’s massive data collection from over 5 million vehicles (50 billion miles annually) gives it an edge in training its FSD neural network, potentially accelerating autonomous driving improvements. This could make robotaxis viable sooner, reducing demand for larger personal vehicles like the Model YL.[](https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/tesla-data-advantage/)
– However, Tesla’s camera-only approach (no lidar) has been criticized for potential issues in adverse conditions, which could slow FSD adoption and maintain demand for vehicles like the Model YL that offer manual control.[](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-autonomous-driving-experts-respond-2025-6)[](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/nhtsa-opens-probe-into-24-mln-tesla-vehicles-over-full-self-driving-collisions-2024-10-18/)
### Conclusion
Autonomous driving could reduce demand for the Tesla Model YL in the U.S. if robotaxis become a cheaper, more convenient alternative for short trips, as Musk predicts. However, the U.S.’s strong market for three-row SUVs, regulatory delays, safety concerns, and the current limitations of FSD (requiring driver supervision) suggest that demand for the Model YL could remain robust, especially for families and group travel. In China, where the Model YL is prioritized, demand is expected to be strong due to market-specific needs. The impact will depend on how quickly Tesla achieves full autonomy, gains regulatory approval, and shifts consumer preferences toward robotaxis. For now, the Model YL’s demand in the U.S. may be tempered by Tesla’s strategic focus but not eliminated, as some consumers will still value its capacity and versatility.[](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1958069174892474729)[](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9996345/)